Hormuz Oil Exports Rebound

Oil flows in the Strait of Hormuz have sharply rebounded: Persian Gulf crude oil exports surpassed 14 million barrels per day last week for the first time since the Iran War began on February 28th. This marks an over +210% increase from the ~4.5 million barrels per day low seen in March. As a result, the 4-week average is up to 14 million barrels per day, the highest level in 6 months. Persian Gulf crude oil exports have now recovered to ~80% of their pre-war levels. This comes as the US military has increasingly secured the Strait of Hormuz and established a two-way shipping corridor along the coast of Oman, allowing oil convoys to resume through the waterway. Meanwhile, refined fuel shipments, including gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, remain at only around 50% of pre-war levels, as these products are more expensive to transport than crude oil and some refineries in the Persian Gulf that were damaged during the early stages of the war have also yet to fully resume operations. Oil flows are coming back, but the fuel market is still under intense pressure.